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Forex Blog Malaysia – High Risk Currencies Verse the Yen?
Forex Blog Malaysia – High Risk Currencies Verse the Yen? United States Dollar: The US dollar retreated for the first time in five days as investors grew wary about a possible US government shutdown next week and chances of a federal debt default in October. The US Senate voted unanimously to limit early debate […]
Forex Blog Malaysia – High Risk Currencies Verse the Yen?
United States Dollar : The US dollar retreated for the first time in five days as investors grew wary about a possible US government shutdown next week and chances of a federal debt default in October.
The US Senate voted unanimously to limit early debate in the hope of passing a budget deal by Monday that would allow the government operating beyond Sep 30, when funding for this fiscal runs out.
Markets are also worried about lawmakers ability to reach a consensus on the governments legal limit on borrowing in the coming weeks. The US Treasury is set to reach its $16.7 trillion borrowing limit on Oct. 17 and unless legislators close ranks on the contentious issue, the govt. will start defaulting on its obligations.
The last debt ceiling deadlock in 2011 had pushed the US dangerously close to a default, triggering a downgrade from ratings agency Standard & Poor. Moodys Investors Services warned Tuesday a failure to raise the limit could have a bigger effect on markets than a govt. shutdown.
Historical data showed the greenback typically weakened in the 10 days prior to debt resolutions/ shut downs and strengthened in the week thereafter, currency strategists observed.
Among economic news, the US new-home sales jumped 7.9 percent last month to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 421,000. That was higher than the 420,000 clip economists had expected and should provide some comfort to the Fed that the housing recovery has not ground to a halt.
Also, data released by the Commerce department showed US durable goods orders rose 0.1 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted $224.9 billion after a 8.1 percent downwardly revision in July.
The ICE-dollar index, a gauge of the greenbacks strength against a basket of six rival currencies, fell marginally to 80.320 from 80.573 late Tuesday.
The WSJ Dollar Index, an alternative benchmark that tracks a slightly wider basket, fell to 72.77 from 72.98.
EURO: The euro edged higher against the US dollar Wednesday after data from Europe showed German consumer confidence rose to the highest level since September 2007 and Italian consumer morale rose the most in two years.
The 17-member common currency had slipped against the dollar Tuesday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi spoke about the possibility of re-launching its long-term refinancing operation to support the regions struggling banks. That could limit the euros future gains as well, analysts observed.
The euro traded at $1.3526, compared with late Tuesdays $1.3474. It rose 0.1 percent to 133.14 yen against the Japanese currency.
The German think-tank GfK SE forecast in a report its consumer confidence index will rise to 7.1 in October, the highest in six years. The Nuremberg-based research group said its gauge of economic expectations surged to 10.7 in September from 1.8 in August, while income expectations dropped, albeit remaining at an elevated level.
Japanese Yen : The yen lost ground against the greenback, but rose against riskier and higher-yielding currencies on Wednesday as investors grew wary about a possible shutdown in Washington next week.
The Japanese currency traded at 98.45 per US dollar, 0.1 percent higher than late Tuesdays level of 98.80.
The US lawmakers are also divided on the contentious issue of raising the nations borrowing limit. The last debt ceiling showdown in 2011 led to ratings agency Standard Poors stripping Washington of its coveted triple-A credit rating.
Although each debt-ceiling deadlock had had its own unique political underpinnings and tone, the dollars current price action is following the pattern that surrounded the last fiercely contested debt ceiling resolution earlier this year.
Pound: The British pound advanced against all of its 16 major peers on Wednesday after a gauge of UK retail sales rose unexpectedly in September, adding to evidence the UK economy is making progress.
Sterling rose 0.4 percent to $1.6070, up from $1.6015 before the data. The currency traded slightly higher at 84.22 pence per euro.
The Confederation of British Industrys annual gauge of retail sales rose to 34, the most since June 2012, from 27 in August, suggesting strong consumer demand witnessed in the summer was sustaining. Economists had forecast a decline to 24.
Economists expect gross domestic product to expand at an annualized 0.7 percent pace in the second quarter in a government report that is due for release tomorrow.
The 10-year UK government bonds rose for a third day after Bank of England policymaker David Miles wrote in the Evening Standard newspaper that it would be misguided to expect an early interest rate increase and sustained growth was necessary to remove slack from the economy.
The pound advanced against the euro ahead of the European Unions payment of the UKs annual farm subsidy rebate. Analysts expect about 2.5 billion-3.5 billion euros to be exchanged for pounds when the payment hits the currency market in the next few days.
Canadian Dollar : The Canadian dollar edged lower versus the greenback Wednesday as the discount for Canadian crude oil rose to the highest since February, weakening sentiment about the countrys biggest export.
The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is popularly known, dropped 0.1 percent to trade at C$1.0314 per US dollar at 5pm in Toronto.
Oil prices came under pressure after data released by US authorities showed supplies increased by 2.6 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected a drop in supply of 1.5 million barrels.
Appetite for riskier assets diminished as politicians in Washington continued a standoff over legislation to raise the governments borrowing limit. The US is Canadas largest trading partner.
Crude oil futures declined 47 cents to $102.66 a barrel in New York Wednesday.
Analysts believe the widening spread for crude oil sold by Canadian companies is negative for the economy. There are different proposals in Canada on how to transport oil and those issues are unlikely to be resolved in the next couple of days, they point out.
Australian Dollar : The Australian dollar swung into losses against the greenback Wednesday while trading in a tight range on a day with little economic news.
The Aussie, as the Australian dollar is popularly known, fell to 93.70 US cents from late Tuesdays 93.92 US cents. The currency gave up most of its gains achieved after the US Fed decided to maintain the current pace of monthly asset purchases last week.
The Aussie dollar had hit a three-month high on Sept 18, but failed to hold onto those gains on conflicting signals from the US central bank officials.
Currency strategists, however, are not surprised by the Aussies downward journey. The Aussie is a vulnerable currency, particularly at multi-month highs against the greenback, they argue.
The currency will come under pressure in the medium-term if the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates further, they point out.
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