Forex trading financial times


Canadian Dollar CAD to USD Exchange Rate Forecast. CAD to US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast Values. Canadian Dollars to One U.S. Dollar. Average of Month. Updated February 2018. Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Currency Exchange Rate. Chart of CAD/USD Exchange Rate with Current Prediction. Other CAD to USD Links of Interest: A long range forecast for Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate and similar economic series is available by subscription. Click here to subscribe to the CAD Extended Forecast. Exchange Rate Forecasts. Interest Rate Forecasts. Stock Market Forecasts. Economic Outlook and Price Forecasts. ©1997-2018. Financial Forecast Center, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Canadian Dollar Forecast 2017 and 2018 [UPDATED] Canadian Dollar Forecast for 2017 and 2018. *Figures based on previous month. **Based on October 23, 2017. ***Based on October 26, 2017. Please check with each bank to ensure the forecast is up to date and correct. Please note, forecasts and predictions may not come true! For a more in-depth look at some of the factors behind the forecast, please read our monthly outlook. If you’re looking for the Canadian dollar forecast for tomorrow, next week, or next month, visit our blog or refer to the table above. Knightsbridge Foreign Exchange provides better exchange rates than the banks for Canadians looking to buy or sell US dollars. Get a no-obligation comparison quote quote at 1-877-355-5239. Save up to 2% on currency exchange. The Canadian dollar has gone on a wild ride in 2015 and so far in 2016. Broad based US dollar strength has the US dollar surging vs. a broad basket of currencies including the Canadian dollar. So far in 2016, the Canadian dollar has lost a lot of value. Some of the biggest drivers that will continue to impact the Canadian dollar in 2016 will be the declining oil prices, Bank of Canada policy and rate cut, US FED leaning towards raising interest rates, and economic divergence between Canada and the USA. The days of the Canadian dollar at parity with the US dollar are long gone. The Canadian dollar has been fluctuating over the last several years. It has been above parity, below parity, back above parity, and now below parity. The Canadian dollar is correlated to a few things. Namely, oil prices, commodities, the stock market, global growth. These correlations change over time. Oil Prices and the Canadian Dollar. Oil prices and the Canadian dollar often move together. Not all the time. The Canadian dollar is often called a petrocurrency because of all the oil Canada has in its reserves. Moreover, the price of the Canadian dollar also moves in tandem to oil prices in some cases. A few years ago, the world was crying about there being not enough oil and that is why prices were very high, there seemed to be a growing demand for oil and not enough supply. As a result, the Canadian economy was strong and oil prices were strong. The Canadian dollar was doing well as a result. All of a sudden, oil prices fell sharply, largely due to excess supply. When oil prices started to fall, the Canadian dollar started to fall, and the falling oil prices has now impacted the Canadian economy and the Canadian job market. This is one of the main reasons why the Canadian dollar is low at the moment in 2016. Oil prices in North America have dropped from an average of $100 a barrel in the summer of 2014 to around $31 as of January 22, 2016. The diminishing price of oil while attributed to a number of different political and economic factors is primarily stemmed from an oversupply of oil production by the OPEC nations and other so called petrostates. For more information on how the oil prices and the Canadian dollar, please consult our article on the impact of low oil prices on the Canadian dollar. Commodity prices, similar to oil prices, often move in tandem with the Canadian dollar. The Canadian stock market has a lot of companies that are invested in commodities and oil, and therefore the TSX and the Canadian dollar can often move in the same direction because of the natural reserves in commodities and oil that Canada has. Global growth and China often fuels demand for raw materials and commodities and oil and as we discussed earlier, this moves in tandem with the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada has an impact on the Canadian dollar. If interest rates are low, then sometimes the Canadian dollar will be weak as a result. Moreover, with the US Federal Reserve, looking to raise interest rates in the USA, the US dollar is getting stronger as a result. If you need to buy or sell US dollars, then you may want to know the forecast for the Canadian dollar. The problem is that there are so many forecasts out there and anyone can produce a forecast. The other problem is that so many of the people that produce a forecast are not always right. Moreover, even experts that produce a Canadian dollar forecast are wrong so many times. Many experts are wrong and revise their projections after the currency has moved. All of the Canadian banks have a Canadian dollar forecast and also a US dollar forecast. Just because the banks produce a Canadian dollar forecast, this does not mean it is going to be right. You can get the Canadian dollar forecast for the banks often straight from their websites. If you’re wondering how the Canadian projects to the Euro, have a look at our CAD to Euro forecast. Canadian Dollar Forecast: Downside Ahead for CAD to USD Exchange Rate. CAD/USD Exchange Rate Will Likely Head Lower. After a long downward journey, the CAD to USD exchange rate seems to have found some support. However, there are signs that confirm that the Canadian dollar forecast might see more downside ahead. I’m seeing two factors in play that are likely to bring down the Canadian dollar and USD/CAD pair. Firstly, four letters are sending tremors across global markets—N.I.R.P.! Central banks of all of the biggest economies are moving in tandem. From Asia to Europe to North America, low interest rates have become commonplace. In a futile attempt to boost their struggling economies, central banks around the world have been cutting rates. Some central banks seem to have gone a little too far in their efforts. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are worth a mention here. The two have surprised us with something we were previously unaccustomed to seeing—a negative interest rate policy (NIRP). These global economic troubles are now spilling over to the U.S., pushing the U.S. Federal Reserve to contemplate a similar policy move. Yes, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has categorically said that negative interest rates are not off the table. If the world’s biggest and most sustainable economy is feeling the heat, imagine what must be happening in Canada, a country closely tied to the U.S. and already battling a recession. The Bank of Canada is now under pressure to match its policy with its global counterparts in order to save the Canadian economy. In fact, it is rumored that the Bank of Canada may eventually go down the same path as the ECB and BoJ—that is, pushing interest rates into negative territory. Negative or not, an interest rate cut can have one—and only one—impact on the Canadian dollar and that is depreciation! The second headwind is oil. Canada is heavily reliant on oil prices, since the commodity makes up the biggest portion of its foreign exchequer. This is where the country makes most of its money. However, oil has fallen in a downward spiral and the fall has perpetuated to 13-year lows. If you look at the historical price trend of the CAD/USD pair with oil, the close association between the Canadian dollar and former “black gold” becomes obvious. The two have historically moved in tandem. Some are optimistic that the oil rout will sooner or later reverse. Statistics, however, indicate that oil prices are not going up anytime soon. The oil industry is facing a massive glut, with the oil supply currently outweighing demand by 1.7 million barrels a day. (Source: “The Oil Industry Got Together and Agreed Things May Never Get Better,” Bloomberg, February 12, 2016.) Since none of the oil-producing nations are ready to cut supply, oil prices will remain depressed in the days to come. Ultimately, so will the Canadian dollar. From a rational perspective, the Canadian dollar is likely in for more downside. I’m seeing the CAD to USD exchange rate heading further south this year. My Canadian dollar forecast for 2016: further downside ahead. Our Free Reports. © Copyright 2018: Lombardi Publishing Corporation. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be used or reproduced in any manner or means, including print, electronic, mechanical, or by any information storage and retrieval system whatsoever, without written permission from the copyright holder. Subject: Golden Opportunity for Stock Market Investors. Canadian Dollar: Compilation of Major Bank Forecasts, Currency Views for 2018. Currency strategists from the world’s leading banks give their views below on what 2018 might bring for the Canadian Dollar, otherwise known as the Loonie. The Loonie could come back down to earth in 2018 as Canadian growth comes off the boil and the Bank of Canada (BOC) lowers its interest rate trajectory. In 2017 the BOC fuelled strong rallies in the currency after it started raising interest rates from the super low level of 0.50% they had been stuck at previously, taking them up to 1% by year-end. Higher interest rates are a major driver of currency appreciation as they attract speculators and greater inflows of foreign capital, which is drawn by promise of higher returns. The recovery in the price of Oil, which is Canada's premier export, further supported the currency although the correlation has broken down in the second-half, resulting in lesser upside for the Loonie from the most recent rise in oil prices. Despite headwinds, however, the Canadian economy remains relatively robust and could be positively influenced by faster US growth in the year ahead as America gets a tax-reform-boost. Thu Lan Nguyen, Analyst, Commerzbank. "The Bank of Canada (BoC) has become more cautious again after CAD appreciated heavily following two rate hikes. In view of numerous risks (inflation, oil price, NAFTA) the BoC does not want to be overly optimistic." "We assume that for the time being the BoC will initially follow the Fed’s rate hike speed so as to prevent strong CAD appreciation against USD." "The better growth outlook in Canada as well as the more stable political environment will, however, allow gradual CAD appreciation in the future." Please note forecasts for GBP/CAD are implied by cross-currency triangulation rather than stated by the specific forecaster. Paul Meggyessi, Head of Global FX Strategy, J.P. Morgan. "Low conviction on BoC which broadly matches lack of enthusiasm for the Fed; hence little pushback on a bounded sideways USD/CAD view." "Especially in light of the most recent BoC meeting, there was low confidence in the timing or pace of the resumption of BoC rate normalization." "And in fact our own economists this week pushed back their next BoC hike to the March meeting (see Dimino, We push our next rate hike from January to March, 14 Dec 2017) - also risk of NAFTA risk premium overlay in Q1." Please note forecasts for GBP/CAD are implied by cross-currency triangulation rather than stated by the specific forecaster. Hans Redeker and James K Lord , Strategists, Morgan Stanley. "High real returns and balance sheet clean-up make EM attractive – the opposite is true of our 'canaries in the coal mine', a club of the DM economies with stretched balance sheets, high leverage, and waning asset quality. Top of the list here include CAD, AUD, and NZD." "The 'canaries' have seen years of economic growth outpacing income growth. The dominance of US rates in determining global funding costs resulted in local funding costs remaining inappropriately low, given the local needs of these economies, leading to a leverage boom." "Now, as these economies are running out of balance sheet leverage space, which reduces their growth potential, the US is pushing nominal rates gradually higher, creating further headwinds." "High real returns in EM and rising US rates mean that the yield advantage offered by these economies relative to G10 counterparts may no longer be sufficient to compensate investors for these growing risks." Please note forecasts for GBP/CAD are implied by cross-currency triangulation rather than stated by the specific forecaster. David Woo, Strategist, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "(USD/CAD): We think the typical wave structure of 5 waves up (12345) and 3 waves down (ABC) since the 2011 low is complete. We think the corrective wave (C) decline ended at the 50% retracement. The low of wave (C) is also the low of the head of a head and shoulders bottom pattern. Also supportive of this bullish view is a small two troughed price vs RSI divergence into the lows of the decline." "The head and shoulders bottom pattern suggests spot will rally to retest the moving averages at 1.3165 and possibly the interior trend line at about 1.32-1.33 in 2018 (See vertical arrow). A decline below the right shoulder would technically invalidate this, which is about 1.2460 and the low of wave (A). In this scenario, we would look to support one again at the 50% retracement and the wave (C) lows. "Trade recommendation: buy 6m USD/CAD digital call. We recommend buying 6m USDCAD digital calls with a strike at 1.36 (spot ref 1.2725), costing 11% USD. This offers 9 to 1 payoff-to-cost and is long volatility, allowing the trade to provide a tail risk hedge for higher spot and higher vol if (NAFTA) negotiations unravel." "Trade recommendation: Buy USD/CAD – target 1.3250, stop at 1.2450." Please note forecasts for GBP/CAD are implied by cross-currency triangulation rather than stated by the specific forecaster. Get up to 5% more foreign exchange by using a specialist provider by getting closer to the real market rate and avoid the gaping spreads charged by your bank for international payments. Learn more here . Latest News on Pound Sterling Live. Australian Inflation Disappointment is “Not a Game Changer” as RBA is Still Like… February 02, 2018. Rand Forecasts Upgraded by Goldman Sachs as Analysts Tip Even Further Gains. February 02, 2018. Pound vs Euro Forecasts Upgraded by ING Group after Sterling Start to the Year. February 02, 2018. CIBC: Canadian Dollar Forecast Update Confirms Devaluation Still Likely. February 02, 2018. US Dollar Rises By Almost 1.0% After Payrolls Data; Four Interest Rate Hikes Now… February 02, 2018. CIBC: Canadian Dollar Forecast Update Confirms Devaluation Still Likely. 02 February, 2018 | Cooling NAFTA risks will help support the Canadian currency. Canadian Dollar Looking Vulnerable to Further Pound Sterling Strength. 01 February, 2018 | The gains are largely symptomatic of Sterling's across-the-board outperformance with strong multi-week momentum. Canadian Growth Rebounds in November but Dollar Gets Only Limited Boost. 31 January, 2018 | GDP growth rebounded in November but is still a way off from the BoC's forecasts, while the Loonie remains a whipping boy of interest rate expectations and NAFTA risks. Pound-to-Canadian Dollar Rate Forecast for the Week Ahead. 28 January, 2018 | The Pound's strong uptrend against the Canadian Dollar is forecast to extend in the week ahead. Latest Pound / Canadian Dollar Exchange Rates. 1.7544^ + 0.03% * Your Bank's Retail Rate. * Bank rates according to latest IMTI data. ** RationalFX dealing desk quotation. Institutional Exchange Rate Forecasts 2017 - 2018. Danske Bank Exchange Rate Forecasts at the Start of 2018. Morgan Stanley: Updated FX Forecasts for 2017/18. UBS: FX Forecasts For 2018. Barclays: FX Forecasts for 2018. Economics Coverage. Bank of England Interest Rate Rise Coming in May say UBS as they Raise Economic Growth Forecasts. Consumer Sentiment Survey in January Probably Not Endearing to the Pound. Gloomy Economic Forecasters at Risk of Getting it Wrong Again in 2018. Eurozone Economic Boom Confirmed, but German Inflation Data Takes the Shine off the Euro. Consumer Credit Resilient in Wake of BoE Interest Rate Rise but Mortgage Approvals Fall in December. Best Australian Dollar Rate: 1 GBP = 1.7812 Today. Best Canadian Dollar Rate Today: 1 GBP = 1.7544. Best US Dollar Rate Today: 1 GBP = 1.4123. Best Euro Rate Today: 1 GBP = 1.1332. All Content © Pound Sterling Live 2013-2018. The news and information contained on this site is by no means investment advice. We intend to merely bring together and collate the latest views and news pertaining to the currency markets - subsequent decision making is done so independently of this website. All quoted exchange rates are indicative. We cannot guarantee 100% accuracy owing to the highly volatile and liquid nature of this market.